Have Modern Supply Chains Outgrown Seasonal Planning?

By ASCM CEO Abe Eshkenazi, CSCP, CPA, CAE

It wasn’t too long ago that supply chain professionals planned imports and inventory according to the expectations of seasonal demands: chocolate at Halloween, pencils for back to school and beach umbrellas for summer sun. But with unpredictable disruptions now the norm, seasonality is being turned on its head, and flexibility is a must — every day of the year.  

“Preparing a supply chain for seasonal demand requires year-round planning and agility to manage the effects of forecast bias and accuracy that fall outside normal levels,” notes Supply & Demand Chain Executive. “The most resilient supply chains don't prepare for peak seasons as isolated events; they continuously adjust operations year-round to remain agile when demand surges.”  

Tariffs, the Iran war and increased fuel costs have plagued supply chains in recent years, so much so that companies are no longer dependent on traditional seasonal ocean shipping patterns at the Port of Los Angeles, for example. Instead, they are “moving cargo whenever there is a favorable opening,” reports Supply Chain Dive. Case in point: Fluctuating transportation costs due to the Iran war have created uncertainty for both import and export schedules. Many retailers and manufacturers frontloaded cargo to “hedge against ongoing supply chain uncertainty, prompting an early peak season.” 

Some good news: Modern tech, such as pick-and-palletizing robots and cycle-count drones, provides capacity support for unexpected surges in demand and lessens reliance on repetitive manual processes. And AI-powered software that offers better prediction capabilities helps organizations create dynamic forecasts and “analyze scenarios, evaluate sourcing alternatives, assess tariff impacts and respond to disruptions using the same underlying planning data,” per Freightwaves.  

For instance, after the unexpected early peak season, cargo numbers at the Port of Los Angeles stayed strong in June. But beyond July, the forecast is more difficult to make as “companies adapt to changing conditions in real time,” Supply Chain Dive continues. In response, some businesses are running simulations on multiple potential scenarios simultaneously — such as new tariffs, higher fuel prices, alternative suppliers and inventory scenarios — and then creating alternative plans.  

Success during unpredictable peak cycles isn't achieved through rigid planning; it requires continuous operational agility. Supply chain organizations must be equipped to detect, reroute and rebalance resources on the fly to keep goods moving. This ongoing discipline — calibrating demand models and running alternative scenarios month after month — fosters an adaptable, highly synchronized organization built to endure continuous disruption. 

Hands-on learning in Long Beach 

To truly understand how modern supply chains adapt to real-time volatility, there’s no substitute for seeing it live. ASCM's upcoming CHAINge conference is your opportunity to experience supply chain in motion with our facility tours. This year, attendees can join exclusive guided tours of two of the most important logistics gateways in the world: the Port of Los Angeles and the Port of Long Beach.​ Each narrated tour provides a rare, up-close look at how goods move through one of the largest port complexes on the planet.  

Plus, attending the conference offers you a valuable opportunity to network with supply chain colleagues in exciting fields, attend captivating talks by a wide selection of accomplished keynote speakers and learn about the latest in tech in supply chain. I hope to greet you in Long Beach this September!